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© 2001 Brian F. Schreurs
Even we have a disclaimer.

With seven prior albums on which to draw, it seems as though it may be possible to study his past career to arrive at a prediction of what the new album will be like. So let's have a look at Down to Earth inside and out

Ozzy's newest album will be fairly conventional: plastic jewel case, little pamphlet, one disc. The disc itself will have some kind of artwork on it, derivative of the cover art. The interior of the case will be clear plastic so that more art -- vague, slightly blurry -- can peek out from under the disc.

The cover of the pamphlet (and therefore the album cover) will feature a picture of Ozzy, but no one else in his band. Though his early works had him dressed up like a carnival sideshow, his more recent works have sought a mature, more dignified stance. Expect religious or spiritual overtones.

Liner notes will include a couple of obligatory band photos, halfhearted and dull, that do little other than prove that other musicians helped with the album. The notes themselves will just be song lyrics and a few thank-yous, not anything particularly interesting about the artist or his band. There's a good chance Sony will stick some sort of advertisement in there.

Ozzy of course will be lead singer, probably with even less range than ever. Zakk "I don't understand why my band Lynyrd Skynhead was a flop" Wylde will return on the axe, despite prior protestations of going solo, playing even more anonymously. Bass and drums will be filled by two guys who will be around for so little time that it's not worth getting to know them, much like Spinal Tap's drummer, but hopefully with less carnage.

Ultimately, Ozzy has always been carried by his music, despite headline-grabbing stunts of the 1980s. In the 1990s, now that the only drug he's on is Prozac, Ozzy has been relatively stunt-free, preferring to rake in cash by the buckets with his festivals of metal. But with Ozzy's move to mainstream, it's more important than ever for his music to carry that heavy metal edge.

Will Down to Earth deliver? A careful analysis of his past work can provide some indication of what is to come.

Over the last seven albums, the number of tracks have steadily increased. Early albums were limited by the vinyl they were originally recorded on, but even today Ozzy seems to run out of steam before hitting a dozen tracks. Based on recent trends, the new album should have ten songs on it.

	Blizz	Diary	Bark	Sin	Rest	Tears	Ozz	Earth (est.)
Substance Abuse	1	1			2	2		1
Himself	1	1	2	2	2	4	1	3
Whiny Crap	1	2	1	1	1	2	5	4
Sprituality/ Occult	1	2	2	1	1
Life, etc.	3	2	2	2	3	3	3	2
War/ Doomsday	1		1	3			1

But what kind of songs?

Historically, out of Ozzy's 63 songs on his seven solo albums (this does not count single B-sides or other special rarities like his rendition of "Staying Alive"), 9% have dealt with substance abuse, 9% have warned of war or doomsday, 11% have discussed spirituality or the occult, 21% have been about himself, 29% have addressed life, relationships, odd topics, or were simply too vague to understand, and 22% were whiny crap that should have been on a U2 album instead of an Ozzy album.

But statistical analysis of a 20-year career can be misleading. Topics that once played heavily in his music have fallen out of favor, and other topics have gained prominence. This has to do with shifting tastes, aging, and the aforementioned Prozac. While the statistics provide a good guide, studying Ozzy's trending will provide a more accurate prediction. This is as much art as science.

With this in mind, Down to Earth will consist of the following:

• one song vaguely about substance abuse
• three songs about himself
• two songs about life, or are too vaguely written to understand
• four whiny crap songs that should have been on a U2 album

Additionally, expect at least one song to open with a snip of classical or similar soft music, then abruptly change tempo to a brooding metal song without any particular hint of why on God's green Earth Ozzy did it that way. Expect at least one song to explain how Ozzy is a heavy metal madman. Expect one of the brooding metal songs (probably one of the ones about himself) and one of the whiny crap songs (probably a tribute to someone) to get extensive airplay even if it sucks, then expect the rest of the album to fade into obscurity, loved only by Ozzy fans.

Further, in a year or less there will be a compilation or a B-side that shows the tracks which didn't make it on the album are better than anything that did.

Yes, this pre-review is harsh. But Ozzy has laid his future based on the works of his past. He could break the mold and do something surprisingly fresh, but this has never been his modus operandi. Ozzy is nothing if not predictable, and his album in a few weeks will illustrate that.

So, how'd we do?

With the packaging, we were right about the case, pamphlet, number of discs, disc art, and inside art. We were right about Ozzy being on the cover and the religious overtones, but we expected more dignity from him. We blew it on the band photos (there are none) and lyrics (none there either), but we got it right with the boring thank-yous, lack of background about the musicians, and the advertisement from Sony. Out of 13 points, we got 10 right, or 76%.

We got the band spot-on, as well as Ozzy and Zakk's range. Five out of five for us.

The album has one more song on it than we expected. The distribution of the songs ended up being: substance abuse, 1; himself, 4; whiny crap, 3; spirituality/occult, 2; and life, 1. The sudden strong return to occult themes threw us off; as a result, we got the substance abuse and war categories spot-on, but came up short in whiny crap and life issues. And even we were surprised by the number of songs Ozzy wrote about himself, with one more than we expected. So, out of 11 songs, we had five correct, our weakest showing so far.

While the album turned out to be better than we expected (and we do like it), we do still keep hoping to hear something new and fresh from Ozzy. After all, we got two-thirds of our preview correct. Down to Earth is Ozzy being Ozzy, and for those who resist the Earth's motion around the sun, it's just right.

We're expecting a wave of error-riddled e-mail from irate tenth-grade Ozzy fans typing like mad at school when the teacher isn't looking. Go ahead, submit your comments: click here.